During CES, I got asked many times if I thought that Blu-Ray will succeed. And today, I’m receiving an email from “The Blu-Ray Press Office” in which they use an article from CNET to convince me that Blu-Ray will succeed (the alternative is getting stuck with DVDs forever). The nine points from CNet’s David Carnoy, with my quick comments
- “Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon” – Agreed
- “Having one clear standard is a big advantage” – Can’t argue with that
- “Blu-ray isn’t going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon” – Clearly
- “Prices for large-screen HDTVs will continue to drop” – Indeed
- “Prices for Blu-ray players will continue to drop” – Indeed 2
- “Prices for Blu-ray discs will drop to near DVD price levels” – Indeed 3
- “Sony will sell lots of PlayStation 3 game consoles” – Maybe, depending on what “lots” means
- “Sony can’t afford to have Blu-ray fail” – Toshiba couldn’t afford to see HD-DVD fail… oops
- “Sony and its partners will figure out a way to have Blu-ray resonate with the public” – Blu-Ray does resonate with the public. It’s just a matter of pricing now.
I think that Blu-Ray is succeeding *right now*. The “why” is pretty obvious: did someone notice that they have the *monopoly* on next-generation “HD” optical discs? The cost of video streaming makes networks loosing business proposal for years to come, so no danger there. Frankly, I don’t see where the drama is. Blu-Ray has already won, it is propagating like a virus and it’s here to stay. To be “The Blu-Ray Press Office”: it looks like you’re out of business. There’s no need for propaganda anymore.
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