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During CES, I got asked many times if I thought that Blu-Ray will succeed. And today, I’m receiving an email from “The Blu-Ray Press Office” in which they use an article from CNET to convince me that Blu-Ray will succeed (the alternative is getting stuck with DVDs forever). The nine points from CNet’s David Carnoy, with my quick comments

  1. “Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon” – Agreed
  2. “Having one clear standard is a big advantage” – Can’t argue with that
  3. “Blu-ray isn’t going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon” – Clearly
  4. “Prices for large-screen HDTVs will continue to drop” – Indeed
  5. “Prices for Blu-ray players will continue to drop” – Indeed 2
  6. “Prices for Blu-ray discs will drop to near DVD price levels” – Indeed 3
  7. “Sony will sell lots of PlayStation 3 game consoles” – Maybe, depending on what “lots” means
  8. “Sony can’t afford to have Blu-ray fail” – Toshiba couldn’t afford to see HD-DVD fail… oops
  9. “Sony and its partners will figure out a way to have Blu-ray resonate with the public” – Blu-Ray does resonate with the public. It’s just a matter of pricing now.

I think that Blu-Ray is succeeding *right now*. The “why” is pretty obvious: did someone notice that they have the *monopoly* on next-generation “HD” optical discs? The cost of video streaming makes networks loosing business proposal for years to come, so no danger there. Frankly, I don’t see where the drama is. Blu-Ray has already won, it is propagating like a virus and it’s here to stay. To be “The Blu-Ray Press Office”: it looks like you’re out of business. There’s no need for propaganda anymore.

Filed in Computers >Featured >Top Stories. Read more about Thoughts.

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