International Data Corporation, or IDC, predicts that by 2015, Android will be at the top with a 43.8% smartphone market share, while Windows Phone will stand at 20.3% and iOS at 16.9%. It’s a bold statement that might shock Apple fans, but let’s take a look at the logic: First of all, it’s clear to me that Android will be at the top. There’s no question that it is currently unstoppable, as it simply adds much value (for the handset makers, and the carriers) for a low price (if not “free”).As for Windows Phone, the IDC estimate is mainly based on the success of the Microsoft-Nokia alliance. At the moment, it is not clear to me how Windows Phone will replace Symbian devices that are the bulk of Nokia “smartphones”. I actually don’t consider Symbian to be a Smartphone player, and neither is Nokia, apparently. In the end, that 20.3% market share number would be a great success for Microsoft, but at the moment, there are just too many moving parts to tell.
As for Apple, getting 18.2% of the market isn’t such a bad thing. Out of about 1 Billion smartphones expected to ship in 2015, that would represent 185 Million iOS smartphones, which is a huge number by any metric. for Microsoft, that would be a great milestone – do you think that IDC has it right?