According to a report from Ped30, they have gotten their hands on an investor’s note from Bernstein’s analysts where they are claiming that Google is now paying Apple as much as $15 billion in 2021 to remain Safari’s default search. This is higher than what Google had paid Apple in 2020 at $10 billion, and it seems that this figure is only expected to grow.
According to the analysts, “We now estimate that Google’s payments to AAPL to be the default search engine on iOS were ~$10B in FY 20, higher than our prior published model estimate of $8B. Recent disclosures in Apple’s public filings as well as a bottom-up analysis of Google’s TAC (traffic acquisition costs) payments each point us to this figure…We now forecast that Google’s payments to Apple might be nearly $15B in FY 21, contribute an amazing ~850 bps to Services growth YoY, and amount to ~9% of company gross profits.”
They go on to estimate that this figure will jump to $18-$20 billion in 2022, and the reason behind the increase in payments is because Google wants to ensure that Microsoft (and other competitors) don’t outbid them. However, the analysts also believe that at some point, it will get too much for Google and they might have to revisit their strategy.